Rent vs Buy Calculator

Dublin, Ireland — 30-Year Monte Carlo Simulation

📍 Select Your Area

€545,000
Median Home Price
€2,350
Average Monthly Rent
19.3x
Price-to-Rent Ratio ?
5.2%
Gross Rental Yield

⚙ Simulation Parameters

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HTB rebate: €0 — reduces your out-of-pocket deposit. Applies to new-build homes up to €500,000.
▶ Advanced Settings (tax rates, maintenance, volatility)
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Showing results with default parameters for Dublin 4. Adjust settings above and re-run.
Probability Buying Wins
Median Breakeven Year
Median Buyer Net Worth (30yr)
Median Renter Net Worth (30yr)

📈 Wealth Over Time

📊 Outcome Distribution at Year 30

⏱ Breakeven Analysis

How to read this chart: It shows the cumulative probability that buying has "broken even" by each year — meaning your home equity exceeds what you'd have by renting and investing the difference. The higher the curve at your planned move-out year, the more confident you can be that buying was the right call. If you plan to move before the curve reaches your comfort level, renting may be the safer bet.

📖 Methodology

This calculator runs a Monte Carlo simulation with randomised annual returns to model uncertainty in future outcomes.

Buying Scenario

  • Upfront costs: deposit + stamp duty + legal fees (~€3,000)
  • If Help to Buy is enabled: up to €30,000 tax rebate (10% of price, new builds ≤€500k) reduces out-of-pocket cost
  • Monthly mortgage payments (principal + interest, annuity method)
  • Annual costs: Local Property Tax (LPT), maintenance, insurance
  • Home value appreciates with randomised annual growth (normal distribution around your chosen mean)
  • Net worth = home equity + any leftover invested savings

Renting Scenario

  • Saves the buyer's out-of-pocket upfront costs, invested from year 0
  • Pays monthly rent (grows annually with randomised rent inflation)
  • Any monthly savings vs buying costs are invested
  • Investment returns are randomised (normal distribution)
  • Irish Capital Gains Tax (33%) applied on investment gains at end

Government Schemes

  • Help to Buy (HTB): Modelled as a reduction in buyer's upfront cash outlay. The rebate goes to the buyer, reducing the amount the renter would have had to invest.
  • First Home Scheme (FHS): Not modelled. FHS is a shared equity arrangement where the state co-invests up to 30% of the home price. This fundamentally changes the risk/return profile and would require a third simulation path. Consult a financial advisor if considering FHS.

Randomisation

  • Home appreciation: Normal(mean, σ=6%)
  • Rent growth: Normal(mean, σ=2%)
  • Investment returns: Normal(mean, σ=16%)
  • Each simulation is an independent 30-year path

Disclaimer: This tool is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making property decisions.